Sam Bennett has been named in the Bora-hansgrohe team for Saturday's Milan-Sanremo despite illness having forced him out of Paris-Nice last week when several riders came down with colds or Covid-19. The Italian Monument is the only one that pure sprinters can win.
Though Bennett has yet to finish in the front group sprinting for victory, on a good day he could get over the Poggio in the shape required to still have a winning kick in his legs. He is backed by his lead-out men this weekend, with powerhouse Ryan Mullen also named in the team as well as final lead-out man Danny van Poppel. Whether any of them will get over the climb with the leaders is the big question, though Bennett is the most likely to do so.
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Even if Bennett finds himself in the lead group coming to the finish after a regrouping coming off the Poggio, based on his form so far this season will he have sufficient reserves to put up a good sprint? He has the characteristics to win this - good climbing legs and a fast finish at the end of long hard races - though the opportunities to win Milan-Sanremo are now running out.
Bennett has ridden the race six times so far in his career and his best result to date is 28th in 2019. He finished in a group of just over 40 riders some 27 seconds down on the leaders and didn't figure in the sprint from his group, which was competing for 14th place.
The race has split significantly on the Poggio in recent years and the days of the event ending in a bunch sprint appear to be over. However, sprinters have still made a significant impact in recent years and Bennett will be hoping he can do the same on Saturday.
For example, Mads Pedersen (Trek-Segafredo) was in the eight-man group just two seconds behind solo winner Matej Mohorič (Bahrain-Victorious) last year. Furthermore, Caleb Ewan (Lotto-Dstny) was 2nd in 2021 and Giacomo Nizzolo (Israel-Premier Tech) placed 5th in 2020. Two years earlier, 2018, sprinters Ewan, Arnaud Démare (Groupama-FDJ) and Alexander Kristoff (Uno-X Pro Cycling Team) were 2nd, 3rd and 4th.
However, it is 2016 since a sprinter last took victory; Démare winning the gallop from a 40-rider group. Since then, the cycling world has changed and is now dominated by riders who will likely attack the Poggio so hard on Saturday most of the sprinters will be out of contention. That's not guaranteed, but it is highly likely.
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Ewan two years ago showed what can still be done by the sprinters in the current era. He climbed superbly that day and would have won but for Jasper Stuyven (Trek-Segafredo) just about staying clear after his last gasp solo attack.
However, given the sheer horsepower of the crop of top riders targeting the race this year, and the aggression they display almost every time they race, the odds of sprinters being in contention to win are perhaps slimmer this year than ever.
If Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates), Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck) and Wout van Aert (Jumbo Visma) go all-out on the Poggio, it will probably be impossible for any of the pure sprinters to get back to them, perhaps with the exception of Ewan if he is on a very good day.
Julian Alaphilippe (Soudal-QuickStep) and last year's winner Matej Mohorič (Bahrain Victorious) should also be in the mix; Alaphillipe especially dangerous on the ascent of the Poggio and Mohorič descending the climb, as was the case last year. Filippo Ganna (Ineos Grenadiers) and Magnus Cort (EF Education-EasyPost) are also possible winners, but there uphill attacks will not be at the same level as Pogačar's, van der Poel's and van Aert's.
Even if victory came down to a sprint from a group, with some sprinters present, there are several names ahead of Bennett's on the list of such riders who could win, or make the podium. Ewan, Pedersen and Biniam Girmay (Intermarché-Circus-Wanty) are perhaps most fancied in such a scenario. Arnaud de Lie (Lotto Dstny) is also seen as a favourite in some quarters, though he looked he got a reality check at Paris-Nice last week and is untested over 6½ hours.
Irishman Bennett has said he needs to build his engine so that he arrives in the final sprints in races in better condition. Even though he abandoned Paris-Nice, hopefully the five stages he rode there, coupled with recovery time since then, has helped his engine some and he can contend on Saturday.
It's likely his sprint will jump up a level soon and not even Bennett knows if that will happen this weekend, or if requires a few more weeks of training and racing. The dream scenario is that he comes good on Saturday and that somehow a large enough group, with Bennett within it, gets to fight for victory.
A sprint from a decent-sized group is an unlikely scenario - especially considering the form of Pogačar and Van Aert's abilities. But there is also a chance some of the major favourites may mark each other out of it, allowing riders like Bennett stay in contention.
