Very suddenly, the number of riders with a realistic chance of winning Rás Tailteann, or even finishing in the top 10 when the race concludes on Sunday, has gotten very small.
Granted, with just two stages of five completed there is still plenty of racing to come. And this is the Rás after all; a race where anything can happen. That includes a group getting up the road and gaining minutes to turn the general classification on its head.
However, after today's brutal stage 2 from Kanturk to Sneem, massive splits have emerged through the field. Some of those men, including many Irish riders, with designs on the general classification now find themselves trailing by minutes. Others are still right in contention, with far fewer rivals to worry about.
So who were the biggest winners and losers on today's 184km race into Sneem?
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Up front, Conn McDunphy (Team Skyline Cadence) and Liam O'Brian (Team Ireland) were 1st and 2nd on the stage, gaining just over 30 seconds on the rest of the men still in contention. McDunphy won the stage, with O'Brien 2nd, and now the duo is equal on time with new race leader Dom Jackson of Foran CC.
The top three are now equal on time, with 30 seconds on the next best rider, George Peden of Team PB Performance. While anything can happen over the next three days, 30 seconds is not an insignificant buffer at this stage of the race, especially with what looks like the hardest stage done and dusted.
McDunphy and O'Brien came into this race among the obvious potential general classification winners and it's very much 'job done' for them at this point, though Jackson may yet prove a resilient race leader.
The man who finished 3rd today, Peden, managed to get out of the chasing group, which he finished two seconds ahead of. And though that's only a small gap, he stole a small margin in a race that may be a battle for seconds, at least among the strongest, over the next three days.
Ominously, defending champion Dillon Corkery (Team Ireland) was 4th today, winning the sprint from the chasing group, after doing the same - also for 4th place - on the opening stage. He is now 5th overall, at 32 seconds, equal on time with 14 others.
And that means the national team have two men perfectly placed. One - O'Brien - is equal on time with the leader, but without yellow to defend, and the other - Corkery - is ready and able to pounce, as a formidable second card to play.
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With O'Brien up front today, Corkery was the only national team rider in the chase group as the fancied Dean Harvey lost 3:47 to the stage winner. That is very disappointing for Harvey, but it does perhaps make things a little clearer for the national team. It has two GC cards to play, with the others in support, though any of them could take a stage win.
The other winners today, from an Irish perspective (with a semi-Irish Italian sneaking in there) include the GC winner from two years ago, Daire Feeley (All human-VeloRevolution). He is one of the men now equal on time some 32 seconds off yellow. And, knowing Feeley, that's not good news for anyone else.
The Irish-Italian Matteo Cigala (All human-VeloRevolution) put in a great ride today for 6th and he leads the county rider classification. Ewan Warren (Brocar Alé), a potential stage or GC winner, was also in the 17-man chase group today, as was Ronan O'Connor for Leinster; one of only five Irish riders in that chasing group pursuing the McDunphy-O'Brien express.
Irish riders aside - and though stickybottle is not as familiar with the foreign visitors as the home challengers - anyone in the 17-man chasing group today can count themselves firmly in the mix for the final general classification.
But after those, there were much bigger gaps. The next group on the road was another 1:35 back - numbering 30 riders. While it would not be at all unusual for a Rás breakaway to go clear on any one of the three remaining stages and gain that time back, it looks a tall order.
In that group, losing that time, were some quality riders who will be disappointed with today, though they could yet take a stage result, even a win. They included yellow jersey Alex Pritchard (Richardson Trek DAS) and his team mate Conor McGoldrick, who won the opening stage last year and held the race lead until the final stage.
The likes of Cian Keogh (Skyline Cadence), Lindsay Watson, Darnell Moore, Mitchell McLaughlin (All human-VeloRevolution), Conal Scully (Dan Morrissey-MIG-Pactimo), Jason Kenney (UCD Cycling Club) and Gareth O'Neill (Challenge CC) would all have wanted to make at least the chase group today. But they were back the road, losing 1:35 to the chase group.
And so too was last year's Rás runner-up Cormac Mcgeough of Canel's Java; his absence from the chase group a big disappointment after last year's fine performance on Irish roads, and a fantastic season generally.
Much further back - over 13 minutes - was Luke Smith of Moynalty CC and stage 1 runner-up Paul Kennedy (Skyline-Cadence). The in-form comeback man Ronan Tuomey (O'Leary Stone Kanturk) was with them, though expecting a GC from him at this Rás, having just returned to racing., was perhaps a big much. Based on his results so far this year, his time will come.
At present, O'Brien, McDunphy and Corkery look good - with McDunphy saying in clear terms today that O'Brien was a beast in their move for the final 50km. But only the very naive would rule out Feeley or, indeed, the race leader Jackson.
With two stages done, 17 riders are all within 32 seconds of the top three equal on time. The race for final yellow looks to be between them. But this is the Rás, so you just never know.
