Ahead of any national championships, nothing is decided, no matter what the form book says. Established riders, the hot favourites, can crumble on the day. Others, perhaps simmering just below the radar, can surge forward and seize the chance to make a name for themselves.
At the National Cyclocross Championships in Limerick this weekend, the reigning senior champions have done it all before, but they also bear almost all the pressure.
In the men's race, Dean Harvey (Trinity Racing) has developed into a serious contender - on both road and mud - in recent years. It is likely we are about to witness, for the first time, what he is truly capable of in 2024.
He goes into the senior men's title race on Sunday as the clear favourite, but there are a small number of especially strong contenders who will be out to end his reign. And in the women's race, the pressure is perhaps weighted to an even great extent on the shoulders of the champion, Maria Larkin. Irish cycling's most promising young athletes are breathing down her neck.
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And it is that 19-rider combined women's junior and senior contest that perhaps looks the most exciting, so let's start there. Larkin (Cuttin Crew-Donkey Label) has won the title for the past three editions. But she faces perhaps her toughest test on Sunday since being beaten to the crown by a then 17-year-old Lara Gillespie in 2019.
While Gillespie, now focused on track and road, hasn't ridden the cyclocross championships since then, a number of new teenagers are lining up behind champion Larkin to try and put her to the sword on Sunday.
Aliyah Rafferty (Tofauti Everyone Active), Greta Lawless (Team WORC) and Aine Doherty (VC Glendale) have come up from the U16 ranks to the juniors since the start of the season and have won senior races.
There hasn't been much to separate those three and each of them has gotten the better of the other two at different times this season. They are expected to put Larkin to the test, and maybe beat her, though the US-based champion knows how to win this title.
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Others who can be in the mix include Roisin Lally (Loughborough Lightning Cycling Team), Darcey Harkness (VC Glendale) and Hannah McClorey (Doltcini Cycle Division). Though we haven't seen too much of McClorey in Ireland in recent months, she was 2nd in the senior championships last year - aged 17 - and she is a real contender for Sunday.
In the men's race, Harvey is the very clear favourite and though it is hard to see him being beaten, nothing is impossible. Kevin McCambridge (Trinity Racing) has been riding very strongly this season while Darnell Moore (Caldwell Cycles) has won the title before.
While McCambridge has put more focus into 'cross this year, and that has shown with recent strong performances, Moore is perhaps not as focused on the discipline as he was in the past, though he is the master of preparing for a goal and executing it.
Richard Barry (St Finbarr's CC), Jamie Meehan (CC Etupes), Travis Harkness (Spellman-Dublin Port), Tadhg Killeen (Kilcullen Cycling Club Murphy Geospacial) and Graham Boyd (McConvey Cycles) should also be at the front challenging, perhaps even for a medal.
In the men's junior race, a real battle is expected for gold, with Conor Murphy (Caldwell Cycles) and Joseph Mullen (Zappi Racing Team) looking like the stand-out contenders. Murphy bagged a top 10 in Europe recently while Mullen was 2nd in the title race, to Liam O'Brien, 12 months ago.
However, David Gaffney (Villeneuve Cycliste), Michael Collins (Newcastle West Cycling Club) and Cal Tutty (JEGG-DJR Academy) have all represented Ireland already at junior level and will be looking for a medal.
In the masters women's event, Michelle Geoghegan (Un-Attached Munster) looks like the favourite though Jean Wilson (Orwell Wheelers Cycling Club), 5th last year, will also fancy her chance of a medal, as will Emma Convey (EPIC MTB-Expert Cycles).
In the Masters 40 men's race, defending champion Glenn Kinning (Kinning Cycles) is back to defend his title, though last year's bronze medal man, Ronan O'Flynn of Orwell Wheelers, will also go into the contest with designs on gold.
Marcus Flavin (Dungarvan CC), Frank McDermott (Oldcastle CC), Evan Ryan (Team WORC), Barry Convery (Newry Wheelers CC) and Drew McKinley (Newry Wheelers CC) can also challenge for a medal on their day.
