Michael Matthews (BikeExchange) gained significant ground on Mark Cavendish (Deceuninck-QuickStep) in the fight for the green jersey at the Tour de France today after making the winning breakaway.
Cavendish took his fourth win of the Tour on last Friday's stage 13 into Carcassonne but has failed to score any points since then. Yet Matthews has scored points on every stage since then and he is now within striking distance of green.
In the next couple of days, Matthews will be a massive danger man for Cavendish. The final destination of the green jersey this year may come down to Deceuninck-QuickStep's ability to control the formation of the early breakaway tomorrow and on Thursday. They must try to mark Matthews out of that action.
However, while Cavendish has done incredibly well on the Tour so far, we are now entering the hard mountain stages in the third week of the race. And this is precisely the point of the Tour where Cavendish may find it hardest to make the time cut.
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Matthews and Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain Victorious) should have no worries about making the cut-off time, as they are climbing so well. That means they can go all-out early for the next two stages to make the breakaway in the hopes of contesting the intermediate sprints.
That is something that would be very high risk for Cavendish to get involved in as his main concern for the next two days is survival. On paper, the next couple of stages see the ability to score points tilting away from Cavendish and towards his two main rivals for the green jersey.
Today, nobody in the 13-man winning move had any answer when the breakaway split and eventual stage winner Patrick Konrad (Bora-hansgrohe) took off on his own with over 30km to go and won the day.
The Austrian attacked from a leading three-man group on the Col de Portet d’Aspet with 35km remaining. And while David Gaudu (Groupama FDJ) and Sonny Colbrelli (Bahrain Victorious) chased him, they couldn't close the gap.
As Konrad rode solo to victory there was something of a regrouping behind him, with Colbrelli taking the sprint for 2nd place from Matthews; both earning valuable points.
They had both also scored in the intermediate sprint earlier in the stage. However, three riders were ahead during that phase of the stage, meaning Matthews sprinted for 4th over that intermediate sprint line from Colbrelli in 5th. For his efforts today, Matthews gained 35 points and because Cavendish was towards the back of the field he failed to pick up any points.
At the top of the points standings now, Cavendish still leads - and has a decent buffer - with 279 points, even though he has failed to score any points over the last three stages.
Matthews is next, and is now on 242 points. The gap to Cavendish has been reduced to a points tally that would be possible to make up on one or two stages if Matthews can repeat the kind of performance he put in today, or even go close.
Cavendish has taken four stage wins so far and that has formed the backbone of his points tally. His finishing sprint is something that can continue to benefit him, if he stays in the race, as stages 19 and 21 should be for the sprinters.
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The best result for Matthews so far was 2nd on stage 1. And while he has been in the top five on stages four times, Cavendish has dominated the bunch sprints and has hoovered up the points there.
However, Matthews has ridden a better race on the harder stages and has really benefited from the intermediate sprints, collecting 141 of his points at those sprints, compared to 71 for Cavendish.
While the points classification looks like a head-to-head between Cavendish and Matthews, Colbrelli is still in with a shout. However, he has 195 points so far and that's a long way behind the top two men.
Tomorrow's stage 17 finishes on the Col du Portet and it looks unlikely that Matthews or Colbrelli would score points at the finish, even though they have been climbing very well. However, the intermediate sprint comes after 113km, and before any climbs.
Matthews and Colbrelli will look to go in the breakaway and take points at that sprint. That tactic would be much higher risk for Cavendish as it will be far harder for him to stay in the race, by making the time cut, in the days ahead.
Thursday's stage 18 is similar; finishing at the top of Luz Ardiden but with the green jersey contenders likely to go all-out to get in the early breakaway with an eye on the intermediate sprint. It comes 62km into the stage and there is a cat 4 climb before it.
Friday's stage 19 is a relatively flat 207km to Libourne, though there are some small lumps and bumps along the way. The intermediate sprint is uphill, though the incline looks modest and within Cavendish's range if he is sprinting for it. It is a stage Cavendish could win, which would really strengthen his hold on green.
Saturday's stage 20 is a TT, with none of the green jersey contenders likely to score points. There follows the finale into Paris on Sunday, with an intermediate sprint and the finish on the Champs-Élysées laps.
Realistically, the fight for green is a battle between Cavendish and Matthews - both of whom have only ever won the points classification once in their careers; Cavendish in 2011 and Matthews in 2017.
Matthews must score and score well over the next two days. And even if he were to take the green jersey from Cavendish, it is highly likely the British cyclist would be able to take it back before the race ends. However, Cavendish must first survive the coming days in the Pyrenees.
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