Irish legend Sean Kelly says Chris Froome has another gear to reach for. But he also suspects Geraint Thomas is not going to have a bad day. And that may mean Thomas marking Froome's inevitable attacking via Tom Dumoulin.
Sean Kelly says Team Sky want Froome to win Tour
Sean Kelly believes Tom Dumoulin being able to match Chris Froome over the next couple of stages at the Tour de France could deliver the outright victory to Geraint Thomas.
Kelly told stickybottle his sense was that Froome has thus far feigned not being in top shape.
And he believes the reigning champion has one or two big attacks in him that will try to cut the race open.
If Froome (Team Sky) attacks and Dumoulin (Team Sunweb) is able to go after him, Kelly said, that will give Geraint Thomas (Team Sky) the perfect means of not letting Froome out of his sight.
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He will be justified in following because he is marking the Dutchman, Kelly said.
And the former top pro turned Eurosport commentator believes there will likely be little time lost or gained between the top three on the penultimate stage TT.
He did not foresee a Geraint Thomas third week implosion or even one bad day for the Welshman.
And that meant once Dumoulin could match what Kelly sees at inevitable big attacks from Froome, Thomas would win the Tour.
He cautioned, though, that he believes Froome still has plenty in the tank. And he said Dumoulin may not be able to follow.
He also believes Thomas having been in the yellow jersey for so long has played right into Froome’s hands.
“With Team Sky; it is hard to read at the moment,” he said of the Froome-Thomas leadership balance.
“I think it’s good for Froome and the team that he has not been in yellow. The French public, as we know, are not giving Froome and the team an easy time.
“And I think if Froome was in yellow there’d be a lot more difficulty, booing and so on, from the French public. So it has been good to have Geraint Thomas leading."
Will Chris Froome attack and Geraint Thomas close him down under the guise of marking Tom Dumoulin?
Kelly continued: “The question is, and which nobody knows; is it going to go on that way? But I think Froome in the Pyrenees; he will try to take the leader’s jersey.
“And then it becomes a question of whether Geraint Thomas will allow that. If Froome goes on the attack and Dumoulin is able to follow; then Geraint Thomas will follow as well.
“But if Froome goes alone and nobody follows; it’s a complicated one for Thomas.
“I think Thomas is hoping; Froome attacks and that Roglic, and even more so Dumoulin, will be able to respond. And then he just goes after them and holds onto his lead."
“Can you imagine if Chris Froome attacks on one of the climbs, four or five kilometres from the finish – and if nobody else is able to chase. Well then, will Thomas be allowed to just go after him?
“With team tactics, I don’t think so. He’ll have to play off the other challengers and wait. And Dumoulin should be the one best able to chase.
“Then there’s the question; is Froome capable of doing it? We see him on Alpe d’Huez; he went on the attack but he wasn’t as impressive, he didn’t ride away.
“But was that planned? I’m not sure if he was really, really trying there. Was he trying 100 per cent?”
Kelly ultimately believed Froome was not going at his full capacity and that he would find an extra gear in coming days.
“I don’t think Thomas will have an off day, as he has done (in past Grand Tours). I think based on the way he has been riding; he won’t have that off day.”
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But Kelly added Thomas had been going very well at the Dauphine, which he won. And with an extra week between that race and the Tour this year, it was an especially long time to hold form.
And it was precisely this coming week that his form may show the first cracks. Having said that, Kelly believed Thomas would hold his form.
“But within Team Sky; who do they want to win at the end? That’s the question. I still feel it’s Froome. But we just don’t know.
“I think that in the TT, there will be very little in it. And if Thomas is in yellow; he will pull out that little bit more.
“You always have that extra motivation in yellow. I can’t see there being more than 30 seconds in it in the TT,” he said, adding the next road stages were the key.
The Tour races 218km today, Tuesday, from Carcassonne to Bagnères-de-Luchon.
There are five climbs; the final three in the last third of the race – a cat 2 and two cat 1s. The final climb is the 8.3km Col du Portillon, with a descent of 10km into the finish.
And tomorrow, Wednesday, is the just 65km from Bagnères-de-Luchon to Saint-Lary-Soulan.
The final climb, to the summit finish, is the 16km Col du Portet at 8.7 per cent.
Leaving aside the battle for yellow, Kelly said Dan Martin has been in fantastic form but this race has simply not gone his way, story continues below photos.
Kelly said Dan Martin's ride on the pavé despite a crash the previous day, and his stage win, showed he was motoring. But his luck was out. He still believes Martin could get another stage victory.
“Dan has had shocking bad luck. In that (stage 8) crash he lost time. Then he had the puncture to Mende the other day (stage 14). Luck wise; it’s not going his way.”
Kelly said he had been very impressed with Martin’s stage win on the Mur de Bretagne. And he believed against the backdrop of what is clearly his great form and a willingness to race, his mishaps were especially unfortunate.
“All you can do is keep going and keep trying. But unfortunately not only has he lost time, but he has lost time when he should have been making time.”
In that regard, Sean Kelly pointed to Saturday’s stage into Mende. Primoz Roglic (LottoNL-Jumbo), who is 4th overall, attacked on the final climb.
Nobody went with him but he still got clear of Thomas, Froome and Dumoulin and gained time.
Martin, however, had punctured before the climb. And rather than likely moving with Roglic and the pair of them gaining more time on the top three, he lost a couple of minutes.
That saw Martin (UAE Team Emirates) slip further away from the top five. And Kelly says though Martin was now over six minutes down on yellow, he was still unlikely to be allowed much leeway in the final week of the race.
“This is when all the riders start to really think of finishing in the top 10 overall,” said Kelly.
That meant those ahead of him would ride to ensure Martin didn’t go up the standings again.
However, Sean Kelly also believes Dan Martin has done extremely well to win a stage. And he said he could get a second one in coming days.
“If he got a second stage; that would be a really fabulous Tour, even if he is 10th overall,” Kelly said.
“I really think that unless you are in the top five.... nobody remembers beyond that; that’s my feeling.”
He believed the attack by Martin on Sunday’s stage 15 was very ill-advised.
“Over 40km to go? Too far out for me; too far out. If I was managing him I would have said ‘look, don’t do it’.
“I know there was a rest day that after it. But every little bit of energy counts. So save it on the last week of the Tour, wait for the difficult stages. You’d wonder why he is allowed to attack like that.”
Kelly said Martin had “lost far too much time” in the TTT. He then he crashed on stage 8 but he had done very well on the cobbles the next day.
And that performance on the pavé, coupled with Martin’s stage win, has convinced Kelly this Tour could have been very, very different for the clearly in-form Irish climber without his bad luck.
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