The top Irish road riders - not to mention Cycling Ireland - face an anxious wait in the next few weeks before the quota of places for the road races and TTs at the Paris Olympics are confirmed.
Places hang in the balance for Ireland, indeed it could barely be closer, for the first Olympics where an equal number of riders will line up in the men's and women's road races and TTs. That means more women in their road race but fewer riders in the men's event. There will be 90 riders in both road races compared to 67 women and 130 men in Tokyo.
There will definitely be fewer Irish men lining up on the start line in Paris next summer compared to Tokyo just over two years ago. And, though there are more places for women this time around, Ireland faces a cliffhanger in the next few weeks.
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In Tokyo 2020 - postponed until 2021 because of the pandemic - Ireland had three riders in the men's road race (Nicolas Roche, Dan Martin and Eddie Dunbar) and one in the TT (Roche). We had no riders in either the women's road race or TT because we did not qualify.
Indeed, since the women's road race was first introduced in Los Angeles in 1984, only one Irish woman has ever been on the start line - Deirdre Murphy, who benefitted from an Irish wildcard entry for Sydney 2000.
This time around - with a big step up in the standard in Irish women's cycling and more places in the women's road race - it was hoped the Irish women would qualify for the first time. But with just one month remaining in the qualifying window, Ireland is ranked 46th in the UCI nations rankings, with the top 45 nations to qualify.
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Ireland has 484 points, just 49 points behind Hungary, which is currently in the last slot of the nations guaranteed one place in the road race. We are just one point ahead of United Arab Emirates, which has 483 points and is in 47th place.
The qualification window began on October 19th last year and runs until October 17th, just one month from now. In both the men's and women's road races, the UCI nations rankings on October 17th will determine how many riders each country is allocated for the road races and TTs in Paris.
Nations ranked 1st to 5th get four road race places; 6th to 10th, three places; 11th to 20th, two places and 21st to 45th, one place each. The first 25 nations in the rankings each get one place in the TT.
While Ireland is ranked 46th in the women's nations rankings, and so outside the qualified nations, if any country ahead of us does not select a full quota, one place for the women's road race will pass to Ireland.
In the men's nations rankings, Ireland is currently 17th, which would qualify two places in the road race and one in the TT. While the points tallies can, and will, change in the next month it is likely Ireland will have two men in the road race and one in the TT in Paris.
Ireland would need to drop out of the top 20 nations to lose even one place in the road race. And because we have 3,694 points - some 1,063 points higher than Kazakhstan in 21st - our two road race places and one TT slot look safe.
And, with a bit if luck, the Irish women can climb the rankings one place higher and guarantee a road race place, or a slot will pass to them if one of the higher ranks nations decides not to fill its full quota.
