Mark Cavendish still doesn't officially have a team for next year's Tour de France, but it seems certain the British rider will be there and he believes the start of the race is the hardest he has ever seen. Sprinters, he believes, will have to go into early survival mode rather than availing of stage win chances from the outset, as is normally the case.
The 37-year-old says the opening weekend of the race "is going to be the hardest I've seen in my career" due to the stages into Bilbao and San Sébastián, where he expects the general classification riders to immediately force the pace.
"It's exciting, it's going to be a good show," said Cavendish, who won four stages of the Tour and the green jersey last year. "It will change things up with the GC riders dictating things early on instead of settling into it.
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"But if the sprinters can survive the mountains, they've got ample opportunities for real bunch sprints. Long boulevard finishes of more than a kilometre of a final straight. It will make for exciting days all around."
Cavendish is due to ride for the B&B Hotels team in 2023 but a press conference planned by the team last week - to unveil its rumoured new riders and sponsors - was cancelled. The team has since insisted it has the backers in place to go ahead next year.
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The French ProContinental team's plans still seem likely to include Cavendish, who rode fir QuickStep-Alpha Vinyl for the last two seasons. The Manxman wants to go back to the Tour to capture at least one more stage win. That would bring him up to 35 wins, and would see him as the outright all-time record holder for the most stage victories in the history of the race.
The opening two stages in Spain, which Cavendish referenced, may not feature any very high mountains, but repeated medium-sized, tough, climbs will be the order of the day. The opening stage starting and finishing in Bilbao, for example, features five categorised climbs, the longest of which is just 4.3km.
However, there are a series of uncategorised inclines that will sap the legs before two ascents in the finale; a 2km climb averaging 10 per cent crested with just 13km to go and then a 2km climb at 6.7 per cent to finish on. Those two late climbs, coming back-to-back, may prove a springboard for one of the general classification men's teams to stage a full-on assault, as Jumbo Visma have done several times in recent years.
The second day of action is 209km from Vitoria-Gasteiz to San Sébastián, with five medium categorised climbs and a series of other lumps and bumps through the stage. It is the final climb of the day that looks most interesting; the 8km Jaizkibel coming 17.5k from the finish and looking likely to cause problems for many riders. That climb may also see shots fired in the fight for yellow as the final 3.1km of that climb features an average gradient of 7.1 per cent.
Once those two stages are done and dusted, stages 3 and 4 into Bayonne and Nogaro should end in bunch finishes, though there are still come climbs to contend with.
