Cycling Ireland has named a six-rider long list for the UCI World Road Championships in Rwanda in September. And though that will be whittled down as the race approaches, there is a chance Ireland could qualify six places for elite men's road race.
If that was the case - though Irish riders would need to perform very strongly in the next couple of months - all of the shortlisted riders could be picked.
Though Ryan Mullen (Red Bull-Bora-hansgrohe) and Rory Townsend (Q36.5 Pro Cycling Team) are not climbers, they are experienced riders who could get through the opening phase of the road race, to assist the others on the team, even though the climbs come early and often on the course in Rwanda.
But Mullen and Townsend aside for a moment, realistically how many Irish riders will take to the road race start line in Rwanda? How will they qualify and when will know how many places there are for Irish riders?
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In short, it all depends on how Ireland is placed in the UCI nations' rankings by the qualification cut off date of August 19th. Currently, Ireland is 19th in the rankings and if we were to maintain that position, we would secure places for six riders on the team. )No matter where we finish, all nations will be allowed two TT places.)
Nations ranked 1st to 8th will be allocated eight places in the road race, with six riders for those nations ranked 11th to 20th - where Ireland is at present. Those nations ranked 21st to 30th in the world on August 19th will secure four road race places and nations ranked 31st to 50th in the world will each get one place in the race.
Ireland is currently 19th on 4,062.33 points; compared to Canada in 20th on 3,809.99 points and New Zealand in 18th on 4,582.57 points.
For context, the top three placings on a stage at the Tour de France secure 210, 150 and 110 points. So a big Tour by Ben Healy (EF Education-EasyPost), even one where he secures a number of top placings, could the difference between Ireland remaining in top 20 nations and qualifying six for the Worlds, or dropping just outside the top 20 and qualifying four places.
It's not all about Healy, of course. For example, Eddie Dunbar (Team Jayo AlUla) will also be riding the Tour and, depending on how his team leader Ben O'Connor does, Dunbar may also get a shot at his own results.
And all our other riders can score points between now and August 19th. But based on where Ireland is at present, and the fact there are less than two months remaining to score points, it will be close between qualifying four or six places. We'll simply have to wait and see.
How might the selection pan out?
Cycling Ireland is under no obligation to fill the full quota of riders, and has often not picked the maximum number permitted for either the road Worlds or Europeans.
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However, this Worlds is slightly different. For a start, the national governing body said months ago that only a men's elite team will be going to Rwanda. It cited the cost of going there, the altitude and the sheer difficulty of what is a climbers' course.
They are two short sharp climbs every 15.1km lap, from the start, with a larger one in the middle - 35 climbs all in, with a total of 5,475m elevation, over 267.5km. It's a savage test.
The Europeans and Worlds are also crammed into the same part of the season and so Cycling Ireland has decided to send an elite men's team to the Worlds and to cater for other categories at the Europeans.
Against that backdrop, with full focus on out elite men's team in Rwanda, it would be crazy not to fill the full quota. The riders shortlisted have also expressed their desire to go to these Worlds. They are an experienced and talented group, each one capable of playing a significant role towards the team's objective of winning a medal.
And that medal, if Ireland was to win one, is most likely to be delivered by Ben Healy. The EF Education-EasyPost rider told stickybotlte recently he aimed to do a "proper" ride at the Worlds and that Cycling Ireland are behind that plan.
Over the last 12 months he has finished 3rd at Liège-Bastogne-Liège, 5th at La Flèche Wallonne, 7th at the Worlds and 10th at the Olympics. And at both last year's Worlds and Olympics, he went for broke looking for a medal only to be overhauled by chasers in the finals.
Healy is definitely a rider Ireland can credibly back to go to Rwanda and win a medal. Even if he's in great form on the day he may not win one. But he is a nailed on bona fide contender and that's a rare thing for an Irish team going into a Worlds.
Dunbar is on the longlist - with Healy, Townsend, Mullen and the EF Education-EasyPost duo of Darren Rafferty and Archie Ryan.
Though Dunbar is a world class climber, his results have come in stage races. He is not a man, for example, even for the hilliest classics, which he has rarely ridden in his career. And that means Dunbar would likely go to as a support rider for Healy, probably alongside Rafferty and Ryan, if the team was picked on climbing abilities.
And if the team is six riders, Townsend and Mullen will go. Having said that, it is not automatic that Townsend and Mullen would only be selected if it is a six-strong team.
Both have ridden very well at World Championships, including on hilly courses. And one only has to look at the value Mullen was to Healy last year at the Olympics to understand how strong he is, the experience he has and his enthusiasm for riding for Ireland.
Whether the team is four riders or six, the selectors will have a headache, which is a great situation to be in, especially with a rider like Healy. He could win a medal on a good day that was blessed with some good luck and the absence of bad luck.
