Dan Martin has a stage win already and is 9th overall at the Tour de France. But he wants more. Where do his best chances come in the stages that remain?
Dan Martin's chances to come at Tour de France
Now 9th overall at Tour de France 2018; Dan Martin lost time on Alpe d’Huez after going deep the previous day.
His general classification position is very healthy. But he wants to go higher. And he will also fancy another stage win.
So what chance does he have? The blunt answer is: “Very few”.
Yesterday’s flat stage will have given the climbers a break to recoup a little.
Hopefully the Irish rider will now be all set for the climbs to come this weekend before Monday’s rest day.
Last year when Dan Martin lost time on stage 9 after going down in the crash that claimed Richie Porte, he went on the attack and gained time on several stages.
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This year has been different; mainly because many of the favourites’ willingness to be aggressive.
Last year when he went, Martin's bravery was rewarded because he was one of the few willing to have a go.
This time around the racing has been less conservative and if he goes for it he is much more likely to get caught out by counter attacking.
The battle up Alpe d’Huez, for example, was one of the most aggressive ever on that mountain.
It was also more than four minutes slower than the record and not even in the top 100 fastest times ever.
And because Martin had gone so deep the previous day, he was exposed. He may have survived with the favourites had the climb been less aggressive and steadier, even if the mountain was climbed faster.
It is often the surge-stall pattern that rips the legs off under pressure riders, even top climbers like Dan Martin.
There is every expectation that the next couple of days will be all-out just like Alpe d'Huez.
Yellow jersey Geraint Thomas, if he does not begin to fade in the third week as he has in the past, will want to gain time on Froome if he can.
And Froome, who is 2nd overall, will definitely want – and needs – to get time back on Thomas.
Romain Bardet (AG2R-La Mondiale), Tom Dumoulin (Team Sunweb) and the Movistar duo of Nairo Quintana and Mikel Landa have all been aggressive so far.
Quintana and Landa haven’t truly looked like causing any real damage. But Bardet and Dumoulin are very different propositions.
They will both believe Thomas may yet crack badly. And they will both know that Froome hasn’t quite looked on top form yet in this race.
Primoz Roglic (LottoNL-Jumbo) is 4th and he may also try to attack to get on the podium.
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But Thomas, Froome, Bardet and Dumoulin will definitely be aggressive; willing and able. And that means this year’s final week looks set to be harder than that of 12 months ago.
The fact the riders who have looked stronger than Martin in the second week seem more willing than previous year’s to go on the offensive is only one issue.
The terrain to come is not exactly up Dan Martin’s street; most of it at any rate.
He is always best on uphill finishes. However, while there’s plenty of climbing to come, only two stages have climbs at the end.
And that means Dan Martin really needs to make those two chances count.
The first opportunity comes today, Saturday. The racing takes the riders 188km from Saint-Paul-Trois-Châteaux to Mende.
There’s a cat 4, cat 2 and a cat 3 before the final cat 2 climb to the finish, though the road evens off at the very top.
The final climb, the Col de la Croix Neuve, is 3km at 10.2 per cent but with 18 per cent stretches.
It then dips down for 1km before 500 metres of flat with a finish on a landing strip.
It’s a climb that suits Martin well, though the finish less so. But it is a finale he could win on if he had the legs.
Sunday’s stage features the Pic de Nore, a 12km climb at 6.2 per cent. But it is crested some 41.5km before the finish in Carcassonne; not exactly a profile with Dan Martin’s name all over it.
Monday is a rest day then Tuesday is a long one; 218km from Carcassonne to Bagnères-de-Luchon.
Again, the final climb – the Col de Mente, 6.9km at 8.1 per cent – is followed by a descent into the finish.
Then comes the really interesting stage 17 on Wednesday; just 65km from Bagnères-de-Luchon to Saint-Lary-Soulan.
The final climb, to the summit finish, is the 16km Col du Portet at 8.7 per cent.
It is this stage, along with today’s, that holds Martin’s best chances of another stage win and with it time gains to move up overall.
Next Friday’s stage 19 is 200km into Laruns. It features the Col d’Aspin, Col du Tourmalet and Col d’Aubisque.
The latter is the final ascent and is followed by a 20km descent to the finish.
Then comes the lumpy TT next Saturday - some 31km into Espelette - before the finish in Paris next Sunday.
So with just two summit finishes to come; there are stage win chances for Dan Martin but they are limited.
He is 5:11 down on yellow jersey Thomas. The next closest to Martin is Quintana in 8th, some 58 seconds ahead of him.
If Martin wants to move up to 7th; Steven Kruijswijk (LottoNL-Jumbo) occupies it now some 1:28 ahead of the Irishman.
And in 6th is Landa, some 1:58 ahead of Martin. It means Dan Martin needs to gain considerable time to nudge even a few places higher, or hope for some of the others to crack.
Either way, some exciting racing is in store and he should be in the thick of it.
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