Eddie Dunbar goes into Giro d'Italia as general classification leader of Team Jayco AlUla and safe in the knowledge he finished 7th overall last year. He finally proved his talent - on the biggest of stages - 12 months ago and now aged 27 years, he is slap bang in the middle of his peak years.
Last year the Cork rider likely would have finished in the top five but for illness kicking in during the final few stages. The impact of falling ill, coupled with the fatigue of three weeks of racing saw Dunbar slip from 4th overall at the end of stage 18 to 7th just two days later.
But, make no mistake, last year's performance was a huge one. However, when Dunbar looks back on his career, will Giro 2023 prove to be the top of the mountain? Or can he do better? Can he finish on the podium of a Grand Tour?
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We think he can, and for the reasons we'll tease out in this piece we think this race could prove the best chance he'll ever get to make the top three in a "three weeker", as Sean Kelly would say. However, though there is one huge factor in Dunbar's favour at this Giro, there are also elements that work against the Irishman. Let's explore those main pros and cons.
It's not a stacked GC field this year
We hear you - Tadej Pogačar. It's true the Slovenian riding for UAE Team Emirates starts this race as the hottest favourite for any Grand Tour in many years. Barring crash or illness, it's very hard to look past him for the win. But we're talking about Dunbar's podium chances here and, in this field, they are very good, and perhaps unlikely to ever get any better.
Even if Pogačar has a smooth run and performs to expectations - neither of which is guaranteed - there would still be two places left on the podium. And when one looks past Pogačar, it's hard to identify those riders that you'd automatically pick ahead of Dunbar.
Sure, there are some on a par with him, and who are perhaps more highly fancied. But, certainly on the eve of the race, the contest for 2nd and 3rd is an open one and it's one Dunbar can win.
The others in that fight include Geraint Thomas (Ineos Grenadiers), who is perhaps most likely to finish 2nd. That's if he performs like last year - not guaranteed as he is about to turn 38-years-old - and if he stays upright, which is never guaranteed with the Welshman.
After those two obvious picks of Pogačar and Thomas, the podium contenders go something like this: Romain Bardet (dsm-firmenich-PostNL), Ben O'Connor (Decathlon AG2R La Mondiale), Cian Uijtdebroeks (Visma-Lease a Bike), Damiano Caruso and Antonio Tiberi (Bahrain Victorious) and Daniel Felipe Martínez (Bora-hansgrohe).
That's a collection of real talent but it's also one featuring very young riders, not all proven over three weeks, and some older riders whose form can be inconsistent.
In the absence of really big general classification riders, with the exception of Pogačar and Thomas, it's hard to see when Dunbar will get a better chance in the years ahead for a Grand Tour podium shot, especially considering the young talent now coming up in the sport.
Dunbar's form/preparation
Again, Dunbar has been hit with a few crash mishaps this year that derailed his early season racing plans. However, he has suffered no broke bones and has been back on his bike fully, racing and training, for a long time.
He has the experience now of going into a Grand Tour on the back of crash recovery and still performing very well, as he did that just last year. And once he can find his legs early, and not lose any time on the hilly opening weekend of racing, he can ride his way into this race.
However, we really have no idea where his form is as we go into the next three weeks, save to say he began to look a bit stronger on the climbs towards the end of Tour de Romandie, though he opted out of the rain-sodden final stage.
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Dunbar is a bit of an old school rider; one who works away and aims to peak for certain races rather than hits the ground running on the first days of the season and continues in that vein for months. So if anyone can find his form now, when it really counts, after a bumpy and indifferent first few months of 2024, Eddie Dunbar can.
The climbs
It's true the race is not quite as hilly this year, with about 20 per cent less elevation gain. And the legendary climbs are not the centrepieces they are often are. Sure, the Stelvio is on the route this time around, but it's in the first third of stage 18. And while the Mortirolo is also included - on stage 15 - it is not climbed from the hardest side and is also not the finish.
This is, of course, the Giro and that means there are still plenty of high mountains, and six uphill finishers. But it is perhaps a course where a number of GC outsiders could try and steal time in breakaways early in the race with their eye on a stealthy GC ride.
Ideally, Dunbar would like the climbs to be as hard as possible through the race and do the same as last year; follow the biggest names as everyone else in the race falls away. It may not quite work out the same this year and clever riders, who come up with time-gaining strategies when least expected, may pose a general classification challenge; at least for the top 10 to 5 positions.
However, stage 8 - with a finish atop the 14.8km Prati di Tivo, 7.2 per cent - can hopefully be one where Dunbar can really start building towards the podium. Stage 10 - with a the 18km ascent of Bocca della Selva to finish - also looks like Dunbar territory, though at 5.6 per cent is not brutishly steep.
While stage 15 to Livigno features 19km of near continuous climbing to the finish, there is some descending about two thirds of the way through that section. Stage 17 features the Passo Brocon to finish; 11.9km at 6.4 per cent. And then stage 20 features two ascents of the Monte Grappa - 18.2km at 8.1 per cent - though there is a descent to the finish.
In short, there is plenty of climbing. But Dunbar is an out-and-out climber and this is perhaps not a route tailor made for his skillset. Having said that, with Pogačar in the race, the climbing should be very hard. And once Dunbar has the same legs as last year, that will suit him.
Gravel and TTs
On stage 6 there is a total of 11.6km of gravel, in three sections, in the last third of the stage, including the 2.5km climb to Grotti Alto, at 6.6 per cent. The last gravel sector is completed just 16km from the finish of the 180km stage into Rapolano Terme. That means there will not be much time to recover after any mishaps.
The gravel is not something Dunbar is experience on, or will relish. However, most of the general classification riders will be in the same boat so hopefully the Irishman can get through the day with his chances intact.
While there is no TTT in Giro 2024, there are two individual TTs, for a total combined distance of over 70km. The first TT comes on stage 6 and takes the riders 40.6km from Foligno to Perugia.
The opening 34km is pan flat and Dunbar will likely lose time there. However, that is followed by a 1.3km section of over 10 per cent gradient, followed by undulating terrain as the road creeps uphill all the way to the finish; where the Irish rider can gain time.
The second TT comes on stage 14, with a flat 31.2km from Castiglione delle Stiviere to Desenzano del Garda. This is a stage that will not suit Dunbar and it will be all about limiting his losses. Overall, the TTs and gravel are banana skins for the Irishman, but with a bit of luck, and the right legs, he can hold position and look to make gains on the hilly stages that suit him best.
Conclusion
The biggest upside in this year's race as the lack of big general classification names after the hot favourite; something we can very rarely say about Grand Tours. Hopefully, Dunbar will be in a position to take full advantage of such a good opportunity.
