Eddie Dunbar hit the pro peloton - in the UK - in his first season as an U23-elite rider way back in 2015. Now aged 26 years, and going into his ninth season with the pros, the Cork man is no longer a newcomer. His time with Team Sky/Ineos Grenadiers was mixed. Incredibly, Dunbar secured just one Grand Tour start with the British team. He was called up for Giro 2019 - the first Grand Tour the team tackled after he joined them. But in the following 11 Grand Tours while he was a Sky/Ineos rider he never made the start line again. He missed out a couple of times through illness and injury when selection looked likely. But, mostly, he simply wasn't picked.
That lack of Grand Tour riding has, without question, undermined his development. Three-week races are regarded by riders as the biggest opportunities to build their engines - even Sam Bennett noted in recent days he needed two Grand Tours next year to regain the lost ground of the last two seasons. No matter how good Dunbar is now - more on that later - he would be a better rider if he had more Grand Tours in his legs. He goes into next season set to lead his new team, BikeExchange-Jayco, at the Giro. He must now make the jump from winning two medium-status races this year to becoming the leader of a World Tour team in the Giro - going head-to-head with some of the best riders in the sport. Is he ready? Indeed, is he able?
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Race record
Dunbar's results - and performances - to date are the obvious place to start to asses how he might do at the Giro next year. The major problem with judging his racing record so far is that he has been a Sky/Ineos rider for the last four seasons. That team is packed with talent and Dunbar was most often racing in a support capacity, rather than for himself. That means his true abilities over the last four years are not captured in his results. He has, nonetheless, ridden nine World Tour stage races during that time. His best result in those events was at Tour de Suisse 2021. He finished 4th overall, won the young rider classification and placed 4th on the last stage after riding in the high mountains to ensure team mate Richard Carapaz won the race. Granted, Dunbar simply hasn't had enough starts in World Tour stage races to truly gauge his abilities at that level. But it still has to be said his ride in Sussie last year is the only time he truly put in a performance that suggested he could be a Grand Tour team leader one day. It's hard to point to any other result, or even performance, since he first stepped foot into a pro bunch back in 2015, as evidence of Grand Tour team leader potential.
While he won two races this year - Coppi e Bartali and Tour de Hongrie - they carried a UCI ranking of 2.1. Success at that level is not seen as a likely indicator of Grand Tour potential. Frustratingly, Dunbar did not win a stage in either race. In Hongrie he was beaten to the line - on a straight-out drag race up a climb - by 20-year-old Antonio Tiberi (Trek-Segafredo). At Coppi e Bartali Dunbar saw his 20-year-old team mate Ben Tulett win a stage ahead of him. Tulett's ability to win on the day, even though Dunbar claimed the overall after gaining time in a stage 1 breakaway, probably cost Dunbar a place in the Giro team this year. He was passed over in favour of Tulett; a selection that was completely justified when Tulett managed to take 5th in the final stage TT in Verona. Dunbar's time at Sky/Ineos has been one marked by a lack of opportunity - especially in Grand Tours and other World Tour stage races. But he has had some opportunities; races where he was supported by the team and/or was free to attack to secure his own results. Those were all opportunities where he could have won or finished on the podium. At Tour de La Provence (2.1) in 2019, for example, Dunbar was the clear GC leader in the team. He was free to attack, and did so, before finishing 7th overall. At Tour de Yorkshire (2.HC) later that year, Dunbar and team mate Chris Lawless were free to attack, even though Lawless was leading the race going into the final stage. Dunbar lit it up on that last stage, getting clear on his own, only for Lawless and Greg Van Avermaet (AG2R Citroën) to get across to him. Dunbar finished 3rd, in the three-up sprint to the line, as Van Avermaet won the stage and Lawless won overall.
At the time, Yorkshire and Provence looked like great results in Dunbar's first months with Team Sky. In hindsight, they were missed chances, especially when so many young riders were coming through and he really needed to convert his opportunities. If he had done better in those events - and others in 2019 and 2020 - he may have immediately shot up the team pecking order. At La Route d'Occitanie-La Dépêche du Midi (2.1), also in 2019, Dunbar was again best-placed of the team and in a position to target a result. He finished 5th overall. At Tour de Wallonie (2.HC) - again in that first full year with the team - Dunbar and Lawless were in contention; the Irishman placing 6th on GC. At Tour de La Provence (2.Pro) the following season, 2020, Dunbar again had a chance to target his own result. He placed 6th overall. He also emerged as team leader at UAE Tour (2.UWT) weeks later, finishing 11th. He again had a chance for himself at the 2020 Tour de Pologne (2.UWT) and finished 26th. Just nine days later he was 4th in Giro dell'Emilia (1.Pro), a very strong result, though he faltered a little on the final climb and lost his chance at a podium finish, or even a win.
In 2021, Dunbar's chances were non-existent, though he still showed what he could do on the way to 4th at Tour de Suisse. This year he got two chances and won on both occasions, though they were smaller races - Coppi a Bartali and Tour de Hongrie. Crashes and Covid have also undermined Dunbar's progress. He caught Covid in late 2021 just as it looked like he was about to be picked for La Vuelta. In 2020 he crashed at Tirreno-Adriatico (2.UWT), ruling him out of the Giro. Overall, however, it is clear Dunbar did get his chances with Sky/Ineos - especially in the first two years - even if they weren't in Grand Tours. And by the high standards of the team, he did not take those chances. He simply didn't take the kind of the results required to secure a more senior place in the squad. Dunbar, of course, can still improve and excel at next year's Giro; something which stickybottle would love to see. But in order to take the kind of result at the Giro expected of a World Tour team leader, his performance definitely needs to improve.
What difference will a new team make?
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Last year Ineos Grenadiers clearly did not see Dunbar as being good enough to take to the Tour de France to work for Geraint Thomas. However, BikeExchange-Jayco believes the Irishman can lead its Giro team and take on Thomas - and the other big beasts - in the general classification battle. After being denied opportunities by Ineos Grenadiers - though not as many as Irish cycling fans seem to think - the confidence his new team is showing in him may be just what Dunbar needs. If the Irishman could add an early season win to those big levels of confidence his new employers have in him, it could be a deadly combination and make a new rider of him. On a practical level, as team leader Dunbar will have much more choice to pick the races he wants to ride next year. It means he can choose races that suit him. He will also know his schedule well in advance, thus being afforded a proper chance to prepare for specific peaks. He will also be a protected rider and so spared domestique duties at BikeExchange-Jayco. There are all huge assets for Dunbar and can make a very big difference next year.
On the downside, Ineos Grenadiers is the richest team in the sport, bar none. Its riders are better-supported - by coaching and other staff - than any other team in the world, with the exception of Jumbo Visma. And though BikeExchange-Jayco is a serious outfit, backed by big money, Dunbar will be less pampered next year. Speaking in purely performance, or physical, terms it is hard to see how a team with less resources than Ineos Grenadiers is going to get more out of Dunbar than the British team could; with all its coaching resources and attention to detail. However, Dunbar's biggest boost next year might be that confidence factor. In a nutshell, he will be in an environment where the people around him actually believe in him and want to invest their most valuable resources - other riders - in him. They will work towards securing his best possible results.
On the flipside, more will be expected of him, meaning more pressure. Moving from domestique to team leader is not a transition every rider can make. Only time will tell if Dunbar is one of those suited to leadership. However, the coming year represents an incredible opportunity. And his new team boss, Matt While, believes all Dunbar needs to excel is more chances than he's gotten so far. “What he was missing at Ineos was opportunity,” White recently told The Cycling Podcast. “There’s a guy who has won two stage races this year, and I think he’s only done one Grand Tour in the four or five years that he actually did with Ineos." He noted Dunbar “couldn’t even make the Giro roster” at Ineos Grenadiers despite his form delivering him wins at Coppi e Bartali, before the Giro, and Tour de Hongrie during it. "I think Eddie is going to be a very good value-add for us on the GC-front," White added. "And it’s exciting for him to get those opportunities he will definitely get with us.”
What would a successful Giro look like for Dunbar?
A top 10 would be a brilliant result and would definitely be a successful outcome for Dunbar and the team. Even finishing just outside the top 10 would be enough to justify team leadership. But anywhere outside the top 15 would be a disappointment. Having only ridden one three-week race so far - and that was four years ago - Dunbar will effectively be re-starting his Grand Tour career at Giro 2023. As such, whatever his result, there will still be room for improvement in the years ahead. And though he will be under pressure to perform, all he needs to do next May is ride in a manner that convinces BikeExhange-Jayco he is worth supporting again. With the Giro in his legs, he could go on to do even better at next year's Vuelta and at the Grand Tours in 2024. The main thing he will need to do is climb with the very best, day after day. When the select group forms, he must be among the last men standing on the biggest climbs. When that group whittles down to between 10 and 20, he simply has to be there. If he is, it will be interesting to see how far he can go. Could he possibly finish in the top five overall?
He will lose time to many of the other fancied GC riders on the first two TTs - totaling 51km - as they are on pan flat terrain. But the third TT, on the penultimate stage, is 11km of flat road followed by a back-breaking 7km climb up Monte Lussari. Averaging 12 per cent, and with pitches of 22 per cent, it should really suit Dunbar. A strong ride there - regardless of where he sits overall - would be seen as evidence he has the staying power for three weeks.
He must prove himself
Dunbar's climbing - especially his attacking surges - are impressive. But now, for the first time, he is stepping up to the highest level in the world with team support; a scenario where he is untested. Specific results aside, he must go to Italy and show he belongs at that highest level, and is a genuine leader there. A specific result at the Giro is less important than proving BikeExchange-Jayco are right to believe he is Grand Tour contender material and that Ineos Grenadiers were wrong to leave him on the bench.
At 26-years-old, Dunbar still has some time on his side, but it is more limited now. If the Giro doesn't go well, he would still have time to regroup and go again as a team leader, either at the Vuelta late next season or the Giro again in 2024. A misfire at the upcoming Giro - being off the pace on the climbs, for example - would really increase the pressure on him. There would be little or no room for under-par performance at his next Grand Tour. But next May all he needs is a top 10 - easier said than done. He will need to ride better than he has ever done before - surpass any previous performance by a considerable margin - to make it into the top 10. It's not certain he can do that. But at least he now has an opportunity to get the best out of himself, supported and unhindered. He is fortunate to be going into the Giro as leader; a scenario based on his potential rather than his results. This time, he must take his chance.
