Analysing Eddie Dunbar | More crashes, then shades of Stephen Roche

It was a joy to watch Eddie Dunbar at La Vuelta and he can have lots more of the same, but only if be breaks what has become a nasty habit (Photo: Tommaso Pelagalli-SCA-Cor Vos)

A brilliant rider from the time he was an U16 lighting up the Munster, indeed national, scene, it looked for a time like Eddie Dunbar might become "the one that got away".

Crash after crash halted his progress. Those repeated incidents denied him the chance to develop as a pattern of injury and recovery took hold. And his crashes also meant he missed invaluable racing opportunities.

Even when the frustration of the Ineos-Sky years was displaced by bigger chances at Team Jayco AlUa, the crashes continued. But Dunbar silenced all the critics this year with two brilliant wins at La Vuelta, one in particular a stunner. There were shades of Stephen Roche in his heyday in the way Dunbar performed.

But 2024 was not without it's problems, ones that the Cork ride now has to put behind him if he is to kick on and build on 2024, rather than his brilliant Vuelta proving to be the top of the mountain. This was a season of two halves for Dunbar, and now the second half must become the norm or he won't achieve what he is capable of.

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The second half

There is no doubting Dunbar finally came of age this year; his talents at last given the chance to shine. His victory on stage 11 at La Vuelta was a joy to watch. You could see what it meant to him.

Eddie Dunbar's win, the manner of it, on Picón Blanco was up there with the best climbing displays ever by an Irish rider on a Grand Tour, including Stephen Roche (Photo: Unipublic-Cxcling)

But it was also a fantastic performance. The Irishman got it hard at times when the road kicked up. But he raced with maturity, never trying anything heroic, focusing instead on keeping his chances alive as the finish neared.

He then pulled the trigger spectacularly in the final kilometre; a strong attack ensuring he won solo. As he came over the line, the relief and pure joy were palpable; all the bad luck put to the sword.

However, what was to come was even better. Much better. There is no doubt that Dunbar's win on stage 20 atop Picón Blanco was in a different class. It was the queen stage of the race, for a start. The the manner of his win was, quite simply, world class.

When Dunbar began the final climb, there was no sign he was under pressure and simply trying to stay with the small select group. Instead, he appeared very comfortable and seemed to be holding himself back. He moved forward a couple of times, as if to attack, and then thought better of it.

But with 5km go, he went for it. He then gradually mowed down lone leader Pavel Sivakov (UAE Team Emirates), before dropping the French rider. For much of the stage final he only had a matter of 15-20 seconds on the select group, who were racing hard behind him.

At one point, very close to the finish, Mikel Landa (Soudal QuickStep) attacked hard after Dunbar. However, the Spanish rider only made a little ground on the Irishman, before his effort expired and he was caught. It was left to Dunbar to sail over the line in victory.

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The Vuelta both rescued his season and confirmed his status as one of the best climbing talents in the world. If he could string together a consistent three weeks, like he did at Giro d'Italia 2023, and also show the climbing ability that he did on Picón Blanco, Dunbar could make the top 5 in a Grand Tour, most likely the Vuelta.

The first half

In a word; crashes. Given his Vuelta success - the sheer excitement and quality of it - it seems churlish to dwell too much on what came before. But it cannot be ignored.

Dunbar started Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana in late January but crashed on stage 2 and didn't start the next day. He then went to UAE Tour, in February; this time crashing on the opening stage and not starting the next day.

Eddie Dunbar, far right, continued to hit the deck in 2024 and he needs to put that behind him so his Vuelta performance becomes the norm rather than the exception (Photo: Luis Angel Gomez-SCA-Cor Vos)

At the Giro in May, having fought his way back from injury for the latest time in his career, he crashed on stage 2 and did not start the next day.

That was a bitter disappointment considering his ride in the race the previous year; often climbing with the very best on his way to 7th overall, which could have been 4th but for some illness late in the race.

His Giro crash injury, to his knee, proved much more complicated than anticipated. Dunbar did not race for another seven weeks, when he claimed victory in the TT at the National Road Championships.

There then followed Tour of Austria (2.1) and Vuelta a Burgos (2.Pro), with two one-days in between, with no results to speak of, before the Vuelta. The start of the Spanish Grand Tour did not go his way, as the heat wiped him out.

Nobody can argue with what followed next, and who would want to? But it wasn't until August 28th, when he won Vuelta stage 11, that Eddie Dunbar hit his stride this year. That is far too late, especially in the modern era when the best are winning - or are at least competition - from February to October.

It is no exaggeration to say that Dunbar justified every penny he has earned over the last two years from his team with his two Vuelta stage wins.

But it can go two ways now.

Dunbar can continue to hit the deck with alarming frequency in the years ahead, as he has done in recent seasons, only to rally and show what he is really made of one a few days each year.

Or he can put the bad luck behind him and achieve big results - many of them wins - in most of the stage races he rides, from one end of the season to the next. That is definitely what he is capable of but it can only come if the "crash, recovery" wasted time is taken out of the equation.